Estimate the Unit-Wide Probability of COVID-19
Calculate pretest probability change over time
Calculate posttest probability from pretest probability and test chara...
Calculate a time series of probability for an individual following exp...
Calculate post-test probability if testing occurred on each day in a s...
Find the probability of any (at least one) event happening
The remaining individuals who would not be expected to show symptoms y...
Calculate a time series of unit-wide probability following exposure
We propose a method to estimate the probability of an undetected case of COVID-19 in a defined setting, when a given number of people have been exposed, with a given pretest probability of having COVID-19 as a result of that exposure. Since we are interested in undetected COVID-19, we assume no person has developed symptoms (which would warrant further investigation) and that everyone was tested on a given day, and all tested negative.
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