Modelling Infectious Disease Superspreading from Contact Tracing Data
To convert model parameters
The next-generation cluster size distribution
The offspring distribution
The final outbreak size distribution
The distribution of individual reproduction number
The likelihood function
To estimate model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo approach
To estimate model parameters using maximum likelihood approach
The "20/80" rule
Comprehensive analytical tools are provided to characterize infectious disease superspreading from contact tracing surveillance data. The underlying theoretical frameworks of this toolkit include branching process with transmission heterogeneity (Lloyd-Smith et al. (2005) <doi:10.1038/nature04153>), case cluster size distribution (Nishiura et al. (2012) <doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.10.039>, Blumberg et al. (2014) <doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1004452>, and Kucharski and Althaus (2015) <doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.25.21167>), and decomposition of reproduction number (Zhao et al. (2022) <doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010281>).