calculate_win_probability function

Compute win probability

for provided plays. Returns the data with probabilities of winning the game. The following columns must be present: receive_h2_ko (1 if game is in 1st half and possession team will receive 2nd half kickoff, 0 otherwise), home_team, posteam, half_seconds_remaining, game_seconds_remaining, spread_line (how many points home team was favored by), down, ydstogo, yardline_100, posteam_timeouts_remaining, defteam_timeouts_remaining

calculate_win_probability(pbp_data)

Arguments

• pbp_data: Play-by-play dataset to estimate win probability for.

Returns

The original pbp_data with the following columns appended to it:

• wp: win probability.
• vegas_wp: win probability taking into account pre-game spread.

Details

Computes win probability for provided plays. Returns the data with spread and non-spread-adjusted win probabilities. The following columns must be present:

• receive_2h_ko (1 if game is in 1st half and possession team will receive 2nd half kickoff, 0 otherwise)
• score_differential
• home_team
• posteam
• half_seconds_remaining
• game_seconds_remaining
• spread_line (how many points home team was favored by)
• down
• ydstogo
• yardline_100
• posteam_timeouts_remaining
• defteam_timeouts_remaining

Examples

try({# to avoid CRAN test problems
library(dplyr)
data <- tibble::tibble(
"receive_2h_ko" = 0,
"home_team" = "SEA",
"posteam" = "SEA",
"score_differential" = 0,
"half_seconds_remaining" = 1800,
"game_seconds_remaining" = 3600,
"spread_line" = c(1, 3, 4, 7, 14),
"down" = 1,
"ydstogo" = 10,
"yardline_100" = 75,
"posteam_timeouts_remaining" = 3,
"defteam_timeouts_remaining" = 3
)

nflfastR::calculate_win_probability(data) %>%
  dplyr::select(spread_line, wp, vegas_wp)
})