Compute the conditional mean μy,t=ϕy,t+∑i=1pAy,t,iyt−i\mu_{y,t}=\phi_{y,t} + \sum_{i=1}^pA_{y,t,i}y_{t-i}μy,t=ϕy,t+∑i=1pAy,t,iyt−i for a single time period
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