Dynamic (Causal) Inferences from Time Series (with Interactions)
Evaluate (and possibly plot) the General Dynamic Treatment Effect (GDT...
Generate the General Dynamic Treatment Effect (GDTE) for an autoregres...
Evaluate (and possibly plot) the General Dynamic Treatment Effect (GDT...
Generate the Pulse Treatment Effect (PTE) for a given autoregressive d...
Autoregressive distributed lag (A[R]DL) models (and their reparameterized equivalent, the Generalized Error-Correction Model [GECM]) (see De Boef and Keele 2008 <doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00307.x>) are the workhorse models in uncovering dynamic inferences. ADL models are simple to estimate; this is what makes them attractive. Once these models are estimated, what is less clear is how to uncover a rich set of dynamic inferences from these models. We provide tools for recovering those inferences in three forms: causal inferences from ADL models, traditional time series quantities of interest (short- and long-run effects), and dynamic conditional relationships.
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